June 9th, Monday Market Update and Mindset Call with Nikki, Cari and Angie

The Monday Market Update returns with key insights on changing real estate markets across the United States, highlighting significant regional differences and explaining why waiting for interest rates to drop might cost buyers more in the long run.

• Jobs report exceeded expectations with 160,000 new jobs versus the anticipated 92,000
• Bond market reaction pushed interest rates higher, breaking through resistance levels
• Interest rates likely heading toward or exceeding 7% this week as CPI reports and China trade talks add uncertainty
• Florida homes now average 65 days on market (up 12 days from April) with 38.8% receiving price reductions
• Arizona shows similar cooling with 57 days on market (up 9 days) and 34% of homes getting price cuts
• Minnesota market remains relatively stronger with 27 days on market and 26.6% price reduction rate

• Case study shows buyer who waited a year now faces both higher interest rates and $10,000 higher home prices
• Waiting for "perfect" conditions often results in higher overall costs due to combined effects of rising rates and appreciation

**My Goal is to help as many Real Estate Agents as possible in the Month of June!! Reach out to me today and get on my calendar for a big boost in your business!!

Reach out for a strategy session to get from where you are to where you want to be for the second half of the year. Let's jump on a call to make sure you're set up for ultimate success.

Chapters

• 1:10 Monday Market Update Returns
• 1:54 Jobs Report Impact on Markets
• 3:05 Regional Market Comparison Analysis
• 6:13 Buying Smart in Today's Market
• 7:58 Interest Rates vs Home Prices
• 10:43 Halfway Year Strategy Session

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:35

Welcome to the Monday Market Update. Nikki, I'll let you take it away.

Speaker 2: 0:39

Yeah. So it's been a couple of weeks since I've been able to actually come on for the Monday Market Update. So I'm actually happy to be here, happy to be back and like get things rolling. So Friday we had a more favorable than expected jobs report come out, stating that the creation of jobs was somewhere around 160,000 job creations. They were expecting about 92,000. So because of the increase, that kind of set the bond market in a little bit of a tizzy. The stock market loved it, but the bond market not so much. So we saw quite the increase in interest rates on Friday and we broke through a lot of floors of resistance because of that.

Speaker 2: 1:17

And rolling into this week we're going to be getting the jobs or, I'm sorry, not the jobs report. We're going to be getting the CPI reports, which of course speaks to inflation. They are expecting a little slight increase in inflation. And then we also have the China trade talks going on this week and, depending on the result of those, that's also going to be not so great for the bond market. So this week is not looking good from an interest rate standpoint. I'm guessing that we're going to be upwards and towards that 7% mark, even a little bit over as we head into the week and with the uncertainty of all the things that are happening right now. So we'll kind of see what inflation does. It shouldn't go up too much but it is expected to rise. This will be the first month that they're predicting that the effect of the tariffs is happening on inflation and we'll see what that does. So it's kind of a big week in the idea of, you know, economic perspective, but not such a great week predicted for mortgage interest rates. So we'll just kind of ride it out. Everything's going to be fine. We do generally see a slowdown in business around the 4th of July in the weeks leading up to it. So it'll be interesting to kind of just see, okay, how many people are active right now and what can we do to kind of just wait out those interest rates.

Speaker 2: 2:30

So, with that being said, I wanted to talk about different markets across the United States. I've been talking about this for a couple months now, about the market specifically in Florida and Arizona and how that starts to set the tone for the other markets in the United States. So in Florida, right now, the homes in Florida on average are averaging 65 days on market before selling. That is up nine days from the average in April I'm sorry, 12 days from the average in April. That's a huge increase from month over month. Also, 38.8% of homes have at least one price drop before they sell. So that's over one third of homes in Florida are having these price drops before they sell.

Speaker 2: 3:11

A lot of the homes in the more popular areas like Miami and Fort Lauderdale, those are staying on the market for 90 to 95 days. So we've got definitely a slowdown or a more buyer-friendly market in that Florida area. To compare, in Minnesota the average amount of time the home stays on the market is 27 days, which is just two days up from April, and 26.6% of those homes receive a price reduction before selling. So you can kind of see that yes, the numbers are going up across both markets. Minnesota obviously is a slower progression as far as increased number of days on the market. Thirdly, in Arizona the average is 57 days, which is up nine days from last month, and also 34% of homes receive a price reduction before selling. So in both of Florida and the Arizona market homes are staying on the market longer and they are having at least one price reduction before selling. So it's definitely turning over into more of a buyer's market. These numbers are expected to kind of continue to rise at least through the end of July as the uncertainty and things like that with the economy kind of keep going.

Speaker 2: 4:25

But hopefully, if you are in the market for I don't know a second home in Arizona or Florida, you can actually get a really great deal right now. So that's kind of the positive side of it. In real estate, what do we say? We make money when you buy the home, not when you sell the home. So as long as you are buying smart and as long as you are understanding what that market is and, more specifically, understanding what the market is in your specific city or area that you want to purchase in, it really helps to have a real estate agent who understands that market, someone who has experience in a specific area that you're trying to buy and can understand negotiating price points and understand how long homes have been on the market and why and what they can do to help bring value when it comes to negotiating that deal, especially in the Arizona and Florida markets right now.

Speaker 1: 5:34

Love it? Absolutely no. And that the perfect opportunity to be thinking about and going through your data bank and seeing who's in there that you should be calling and get in front of with these opportunities. So that's a great, great way. Just cap, you know, it's anything wherever the market's at, in any state, whether it's buyer or seller, there's always someone that you can be serving or showing up for. So it's just taking that. Wherever you put the blinders on with what's happening and then where can you go to provide value?

Speaker 2: 6:09

Yeah, absolutely, and a lot of this is, keep in mind, a lot of this is weather related too, because in Florida and Arizona, specifically, as the summer, as it turns over to the summer months, it gets hot and a lot of people are not buying real estate in the summer in those two states specifically. So the homes do tend to sit on the market longer in these summer months, but we're talking April to May, when there should be a lot of activity in these two markets still, and homes are sitting for a little bit longer than we would like to see and a little bit longer than they did last year as well, and so it's one of those things where, from a buyer's perspective, it's starting to be a buyer's market. Also important to note, this time last year, interest rates were 5.875. So it's very important that your buyers understand if they've been sitting on the fence or they've been waiting, they aren't in a better position than they would have been last year if they would have bought, and so it's kind of helping to explain them.

Speaker 2: 7:03

I was talking to a customer of mine who has been sitting on the fence for about a year and I said look, last time we quoted was the same time last year you were at 5.875 the last time that I quoted, and now we're at 6.375. And the home that you are specifically looking for the type of home that you're specifically looking for is $10,000 more expensive than it was a year ago. So here's the difference. It was a $200 to $300 difference in payment, with those two factors worked in. So it's very important that when you're talking to your buyers, they understand that just because you're waiting for interest rates to go down doesn't mean that home is going to get less expensive. It's going to end up costing you the same, if not more, and in his case, both the interest rate is higher and the price is higher.

Speaker 1: 7:46

When's a good time to buy.

Speaker 1: 7:48

Now that's so great I'm glad you brought that up because, as agents, we need to be having those conversations in the broad picture and not just interest rate and so many things. And I know we've talked about this before. What do you hear about in the media? It's always interest rate, interest rate, interest rate, you know. And so it's really being the voice of reason, finding a good lender, good partner like Nikki, that can explain these things, takes the time to explain these things, has the case studies. So reach out to Nikki and get this case study, get these things, takes the time to explain these things, has the case studies. So reach out to Nikki and get this case study, get these numbers, post this to your social media, follow Nikki. You can stitch, duet, rip off, rinse and repeat anything that she posts. She's given us permission to do this and come from education, because that is key right there what you just said, what it looked like a year ago versus what it looked like now, and people are waiting. We only know what we know today. So I think that that's so powerful and that's what we need to be doing as agents and show is showing up and showing value, getting all the information, not just the interest rate, because it's not only about the interest rate and we have to educate the general public, our sphere of influence, our past clients remind them again and any potential clients. It's just, it's definitely needed, absolutely.

Speaker 1: 9:11

Yeah, I love that and you know and think about that too and you bring. This is why I love EXP. I love that we're in 23 different countries. I love, nikki, that we're in 23 different countries. I we're in our busy season in Minnesota, because this is when you know, like April to August, before kids go back to school, is our busy time. Arizona, florida not so much so as an agent, especially if you're in the referral part of the business and you're looking for other agents or you're looking to get your license across different states. Think about that as a business strategy. Think about where you're at right now and if you were to expand or find business partners, where do you want them to be and where is the yin and yang of your business as far as time goes and seasonality, for sure, yeah, absolutely Good, good, well, and I again appreciate it. So good to see you back here. I've held it down, but it's always, I know you've done a great job.

Speaker 1: 10:15

You show up at such great energy I want to put out there to agents. Since we are about to the halfway point here for the year, I have, for the month of June, just want to help agents this month get from where you are to where you want to be. Want to help agents this month get from where you are to where you want to be. Maybe you're a little bit off or a lot off, or you're ahead of goal. Let's keep that momentum going. So reach out to me. We can jump on a call and just strategize, because I want to help as many agents as I can in the month of June. Make sure that you're where you need to be to set the second part of the year up for the ultimate success. So that's my, my thing for today let's get in there and get the work done and finish the year.

Speaker 1: 10:58

The second part really strong. Yeah, awesome, good, all right. Well, you know where to find us. Uh, if you need us, we're here. Send us messages, look us up, follow nik Nikki on all social medias me as well, and we'll look forward to seeing you all next week. Yeah, bye, bye.