Beyond the Headlines: Finding Truth in Today's Real Estate Market - June 16th, Monday Market Update and Mindset Call with Nikki, Cari and Angie

The real estate market experiences volatility due to the Israel-Iran conflict while navigating inaccurate market reporting and dealing with predictions for future appreciation rates. 

• Interest rates fluctuated between 7.5% and 6.375% last week due to the Israel-Iran conflict affecting oil prices and bond rates
• Current mortgage rates are just under 7% at 6.875% for 30-year conventional with good credit and good down payment
• Government borrowing to fund conflict involvement affects 10-year treasury rates, which impacts mortgage interest rates
• The Fed meeting announcement comes Wednesday with predictions of no rate decrease
• Redfin's report claiming 500,000 more sellers than buyers is inaccurate and being picked up by major media outlets
• Real estate professionals should educate clients about market realities versus media narratives

• Coach John Dietz offers free "Survive to Thrive" calls every morning at 8am CST with script practice and educational content. Open to any agent from any brokerage. Send me a message for the link to join!

Reach out to us if you need help with coaching, mentorship, objection handling, or joining educational calls regardless of what state you're in or what brokerage you're with.

Chapters

• 1:12 Monday Market Update Introduction
• 1:27 Israel-Iran Conflict Impact on Rates
• 2:19 Fed Meeting and Market Predictions
• 3:52 Debunking Redfin's Seller/Buyer Report
• 5:57 Fannie Mae Appreciation Predictions
• 7:52 Educating Clients About Real Market Data
• 11:14 Script Practice and Growth Resources

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:37

Welcome everyone to the Monday Market Update, june 16th. Nikki, what you got for us.

Speaker 2: 0:43

Well, hello everyone and welcome to Monday Update. So we had quite an interesting week last week with interest rates and kind of just some volatility. That happened mostly as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict that's happening right now. So the very important thing that's going to affect interest rates with that conflict is going to be the price of oil and our access to oil. And so what happens is, as our access to oil is kind of questioned or we don't know whether, where we're going to get the oil from, et cetera, as those things happen overseas and we have some uncertainty in the United States of where our oil is going to be, it affects bond rates, which in turn affects mortgage interest rates. So all last week we saw anywhere from 7.5 down to like 6.375 in the week, doing this thing basically the whole time. So today we are a little bit more stable. We're just under 7% at 6.875-ish on a 30-year conventional mortgage for good credit and good down payments etc. And so we are still under that 7% mark, but it is definitely kind of testing that ceiling and kind of pushing it. It might push us over 7%. So it's important for us to understand that if the conflict in Iran and Israel escalates and the US needs to get involved.

Speaker 2: 1:58

The money that the US needs to get involved is borrowed. When that money becomes borrowed, the 10-year treasury is affected. When the 10-year treasury is affected, we want to borrow at the lowest interest rate possible. So that means that a lot of times, there are immediate adjustments to the interest rate for the better in the mortgage industry simply because on the other side, the government is borrowing funds in order to fund what they need to do from a conflict standpoint. So something that we're definitely going to be keeping an eye on in the next couple weeks. If this does escalate Not great for the world, Obviously, we all know that, but could be a little bit more of a bump to mortgage interest rates just based on the idea of borrowing and what that does to the 10-year treasury bond. And so we want to borrow, like I said, at the lowest interest rate possible from a government standpoint and therefore things get affected. This week we also have the Fed meeting, which we will get that announcement on Wednesday. They're saying there's a 0% chance of them lowering the interest rate.

Speaker 2: 2:53

However, with volatility and the conflict rising, we don't really know. So you know, it's kind of one of those things where, I think, over the last 12 months, and especially into the last 18 months, a lot of the experts and the predictions that were supposed to happen just haven't came true, because there's been so many other things that have affected the interest rates, affected the economy, that people weren't expecting, and therefore they just don't really know what to predict. So the other thing I wanted to shift over to is I mentioned a couple weeks ago how Redfin had came out with a report talking about how there's more there's about 500,000 more sellers than there are buyers in the market, and kind of as a fear tactic to kind of slow down that housing or to get buyers to kind of say oh, it's my time, it's my market, I can do what I want or ask for anything when it comes to a purchase standpoint, and so, therefore, with that data, we talked about the inaccuracies of it and how there's just basically no way to predict how many buyers are actually in the market, because it has to do with how serious they are, and what are they predicting, like how many times people have clicked on Zillow. I mean, there's just no real way of telling it. Unfortunately, that story, though, has been picked up by the Wall Street Journal, so we're gonna start seeing it come out in the media. So it's important as real estate agents and as loan officers or people who are involved in the real estate market, to understand that that report is just grossly inaccurate and to talk about shift the conversation from here's what I heard on the news to here's the reality. And the reality is is what is that individual person's strategy? What is important to them?

Speaker 2: 4:27

We are in an environment right now where I believe we are helping people who need to transact, not people who want to, but people who need to, whether that be because they need a larger house for a growing family, they have kids going off to college, so they're downsizing, they need to access the equity out of their home, whatever that is.

Speaker 2: 4:43

We're helping people in this market that need to transact, not necessarily those that just happen to think it's a good idea. You know so, in my experience I've seen a lot less first time home buyers come out on the market, you know, this year than I had in the past, and it's really those people and those past clients or past client referrals that actually really need to transact in one way, shape or form. So, bringing that conversation from the broader of. Here's what I heard in the news, down to what's your individual situation. I think it's going to be very important in the next couple months. The last thing I will tell you is that the predictions for appreciation this year and next year came out from Fannie Mae's survey. That they do so what.

Speaker 2: 5:23

Fannie Mae does is they do this survey of the economic experts in the field of real estate and they talk to them about from a financial standpoint, et cetera, what their opinion is, and then they aggregate a bunch of data from sales and offers and list prices and all these things and they say, okay, here's what we predict the appreciation is going to be, and list prices and all these things, and they say, okay, here's what we predict the appreciation is gonna be. So Barry Habib, who is one of the main sources of money you know information from a mortgage standpoint is calling his prediction and he's been right three of the last four years on his prediction on what the appreciation rates are. So he's saying in 2025, he predicts that there's about 3.4% appreciation. So on a $500,000 home, that's $17,000. And he's predicting 19% appreciation in homes in 2026.

Speaker 2: 6:08

So that's a little bit extreme, that's a lot. So it's one of those things where that's a jump from a 3.4 number, which I believe is realistic for this year, but to 19% next year. So we'll kind of wait and see on that one, but I do think that the 3.4% number sounds pretty accurate based on what we know so far halfway through the year and what we can tell from buys and sells. Even though I was talking about just last week about how prices are having price cuts before homes will actually sell, we still think that, even that we're going to be at 3.4% because, if you think about it, those list prices are probably in the 5% to 6% appreciation range, so they're going to have to come down a little bit before they sell. So a lot of information, a lot of things going on, but right now, from an individual standpoint, from a rate standpoint, we're sitting okay, we're good.

Speaker 1: 6:57

Well, wonderful, and that's exactly why we have you on. So thank you so much for all of that great information. One thing I want to touch on on my side of the street is with the media and the news. So this, again, is where we get to stand out as the agents that people want to come to, that we're out there educating. So so many agents that I know that do business at a really high level are the agents that are educating online, that are raising questions and being the go-to person. They're not the ones just holding, just sold signs, just this. You know that, which is great as well.

Speaker 1: 7:38

I think that we can shake it up as agents, however, be the one out there educating, and I'm talking like take the Wall Street Journal article and print it off, or copy and paste it, put it on your feed and highlight every inaccuracy and talk to it, or do. You could have the next couple months, if not quarter, of content by just taking pieces, bits and pieces every day and doing the truth bombs, or doing this is what it says in actuality. And then, just like we did in college or high school, you had to do this big essay cite your source, cite where you're getting the correct information from, and take this information and debunk it and make it very, very clear, and I'm sure, nikki, you'll probably be doing that too. So, like I've said in the past, follow Nikki, duet, stitch, rip and rip, rip off, rinse and repeat all of her information, because we need to.

Speaker 2: 8:38

Yeah, absolutely, and it's, you know, being an expert, or you know, doing the research and doing the extra time to be the expert, or even if you don't want to call yourself the expert, to bring value to those around you is is what is going to help us target those clients who are going to be transacting during this time. Um, it's, I've seen a huge shift in the people that are actually transacting. I get calls and it's like I got to get this done. Now I have 24 hours to make this offer on this house. You know things of that nature. It's getting to the point where we need to do this.

Speaker 2: 9:09

Um, I have a lot of debt I need to transact. I have, you know, I want to move my mom's in bad health. You know things of that nature where people need to transact right now and they need to transact in any market. It's like how can we bring value so that the people that do need to transact they think of us first? It's like going to the same dentist. We want them to go to the same loan officer. We want them to go to the same realtor.

Speaker 1: 9:29

And if we show them, we make them see, feel seen and heard and they can trust us. That's it. So definitely show that you're there for them and your your source and you want to be the first person that they think of whenever anything real estate comes up, whether it's a coworker, a family member, they need someone and stay on top of mind, and this is a huge opportunity for you to do that. So, yes, I love, I love that that you brought that up and it will get some really good conversations going and I'll tell you, some of it will be, most of it will be positive and some of it will be negative, but it's how you have those conversations and how you show up and you stay neutral, you don't get triggered, you just deliver the facts and I think it's very important and let other people be who they are. If it's not in alignment with you, just keep scrolling, please. Absolutely. That are going to go nowhere, but yeah, and then, one other thing I wanted to do is I wanted to shout out John Dietz, a very amazing coach that's here at eXp. He runs a call it's called Survive to Thrive Call every morning at 8 am. Central Standard Time, 9 Eastern, and I just want to encourage every agent it doesn't matter where you're at in your career, what brokerage you're at, everyone is invited to that and he runs script practice or objection handling or whatever you want to call it on Monday, wednesday, friday and Tuesday. And Thursday is a learning and educational free call and he is one of the top coaches in the country. He comes from a background where he sold I think it was over 100 listings a year just him, I mean, just a phenomenal human being, realtor and educator. So if you want that information, I'm joining those calls. I script practice with three other people from various states across the country. It's just phenomenal.

Speaker 1: 11:41

So I really really think that anyone that wants to just stay on top of their craft a lot of people that are on that call and have been on that call can they say that it's because of that call that they've gotten listings. Are they knew what to say? So if you are not practicing your objections, if you're not knowing how to handle them and you don't have a person, a lot of people like, well, I don't have a script partner, I don't know where to go. Join this call. It's every day, monday through Friday. Reach out to me, I'll invite you, I'll get you the link and I'll make sure you get on, but I think that it's a very valuable opportunity for us as well, and with you, nikki, coming here every week and giving us these updates, we need to stay up to date on the objections of what's out there and what you're delivering, nikki, to us. It is just so spot on and how we can rise to the top for sure.

Speaker 2: 12:36

So thank you. Even people who've had a ton of coaching can still use coaching.

Speaker 1: 12:42

Yes, every day. And I love about this one. I told John, I called him and I did a personal call to him, and I'm just like. I just want you to know that I learned something every time that I'm on these calls or whenever I'm in a room with you. Because if you go about that and I love that you bring that up, because everyone we come in contact with is both our student and our teacher we all can learn from each other if you just come from that mindset and look for it. So, absolutely yes.

Speaker 1: 13:13

And you know what, nikki? To be quite honest, it's the top of the top that are still learning, and they're the ones that know more than anyone else that pouring into themselves and reinvesting in themselves is only going to keep them there and get them better. So, every day, 1% better every day, like I say, and that you'll need a telescope to look back and see who you are today. So, and it's free, it's free. This should be thousands of dollars a month. I'm not even kidding you the value you get from john, so yeah, and the people in the room, it's just phenomenal, so awesome. That's my plug for today. Nice well, nikki, as usual, you put your information in the chat. I'm gonna I'm gonna go ahead and copy this. I'll put this in the live stream for the people that are watching on um workplace, on eXp, and then I'll also put it in the notes on my podcast and the YouTube channel. Reach out to Nikki if you need anything at all uh, me, coaching, mentorship, objection, handling, getting on John Dietz's call.

Speaker 2: 14:16

Reach out to me and I'll get you the info for sure, no matter what state you're in, we can always help, absolutely.

Speaker 1: 14:23

Love it. Well, thanks, nikki, we'll see you next week. And you have a good one, all right, bye, you guys, bye.