Mortgage Forecasts, Market Jitters, And Smarter Business Plans

Rates snap back after a brief dip as Fed chair chatter shakes bonds, then we map a realistic path toward a 5.9% average in 2026 and what that means for refi math. We close with a clean business planning framework, smarter social posting, and seasonal timing for potential rate relief.

Comment wherever you listen with topics you want us to cover on the Monday Market Update, and if there is a subscribe or a like or a follow button, do that for us! We are here to support you in anyway we can!

Chapters

• 0:00 December Check-In And Rate Whiplash
• 2:10 Market Jitters Over Fed Chair News
• 3:25 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts
• 5:40 Refinancing Thresholds And Probabilities
• 7:15 Business Planning For 2026
• 10:05 Social Media: What Works And What Doesn’t
• 12:45 Stay Neutral And Post Responsibly

Transcript

SPEAKER_01: 1:12

December 1st. Welcome to the Monday market update. Nikki, how are you doing today?

SPEAKER_00: 1:19

I'm doing good. I cannot believe it's already December. I know that we say that every year it goes by, flies by, but it's just like I feel like this year has gone by so fast. But regardless of that, uh, let's kind of get into it. So late last week we saw a nice dip in interest rates down into the mid to upper five range. That was temporary, unfortunately, as of this morning. Interest rates are back up into that high five, low six range. Reason for that is Trump announced that he has picked his new Fed chair for next year, once Powell is retired in March, I believe. And he hasn't announced who it is yet. So I I don't I can't imagine him waiting in a couple of weeks, two, three weeks to announce it. So I'm sure we'll hear about it next week. But it kind of threw that mark the market into a bit of a tizzy this morning, and so which is why we're seeing higher interest rates. Those should settle back down though throughout the week once we hear more announcements and once the bond market kind of just chills over it. So yeah, initially it was it was kind of an upset to the market, but we're not locking anything in today. We're waiting, we're floating. So hopefully those interest rates will come back down. I did a little, I wanted to talk a little bit about predictions for mortgage interest rates for 2026. So as inflation starts to come down or as it starts to stabilize, and as the Fed continues to cut those more interest rates on their end, we should see a dip in mortgage interest rates. Most experts, including Fannie Mae and MBS Highway, are saying that mortgage interest rates could be on average 5.9 throughout 2026. So what does that mean in reality? On average means anything from the high-risk loans all the way down to like a VA loan, which tends to have lower interest rates. With that being said, so that averages out to 5.9, which translates to conventional loans being in the mid to low fives. So that's kind of the predictions throughout 2026. That's good for anybody who has an interest rate above 6.875-ish for possible refinancial options in 2026. Uh, especially anyone over 7% will have some good options if those interest rates come true. The probability of that happening is about 65 to 70%. So we should see some relief that we've been long awaiting. There are a few extremist experts that are saying that we're gonna see mortgage interest rates into the fours. I mean, these guys are kind of, you know, really extreme. And so I wouldn't say that's gonna happen, but we should see some good improvement over the next year. If you think about this, the same time last year when we were talking about what 2025 was gonna look like, interest rates were in the upper sevens, and we were hoping to get them down into the fives, and we did accomplish that this year. So hopefully we'll get them down into that mid to low five range, if not the upper fours, which would be crazy. But hopefully the predictions are coming true. And you know, these experts are usually spot on with things as they start to see the economic situation improve. So yeah, that's kind of where things are headed. So also, I just wanted to talk about business planning for 2026 and just some reminders and helpful tips that I use when I go and I business plan. I do a reflective look at referral partners and people who I have received business from over the last year and use that to predict my business moving forward. So if I was very client-heavy referral-based, I'm gonna use that same, you know, idea going forward in 2026 on what was successful. I'm also gonna look at the things that didn't work. So, for example, I do I do a lot of TikToking, a lot of you know social media stuff that does tend to peripherally bring in business. So, in other words, it gets me out there, it gets, you know, people recognizing me, seeing me on the daily um through their feeds and things of that nature. Does it directly bring me business? Not very often, but definitely peripherally. And the idea of if people are thinking about moving and they they continue to see my you know face on the social media, then they tend to remember, like, oh, I know her, I should call her, you know, those types of things. So just a reminder to take a look back at what has worked in the past year and use that to move forward. And then more importantly, take a look at what hasn't worked and make sure that you are very diligent about cutting that out for the next year. Because if you've done it something for an entire year and it hasn't really produced much results, there's no reason to continue to try to keep going. So this is the time to predict your business for next year. This is the time to, you know, just make sure everything is solid and make sure you have a plan and make sure that um you've cut out the bad and kept the good.

SPEAKER_01: 5:47

100%. I love that reminder. And I think sometimes people can quit too early. However, that's a great reminder. If it's been a year, that's a good 12-month period where you can reflect back and see if it worked and it didn't. And I've also viewed and seen agents and people just in general just get stuck because they're doing it now. And I love habits and I'm all about routine and I'm all about repetition, repetition, repetition to get there. However, on the flip side of that, if it's not working, then you you can absolutely give yourself permission to cut it and try something new. And the beautiful thing is I know a lot of agents are going to like chat GPT for ideas, yeah, really honing it in and getting a different plan together or distant work, what is working. So know that that's out there. So, no, that's that's a huge reminder, and I love that. And yes, business planning to the season. I actually had one I was supposed to go to today, but it got postponed with weather, which I thought the roads were fine, but that's besides you never can tell in Minnesota, I'm telling you. No, right, and across like different counties, it gets completely different. So I get it, yes, very much so. Um, but yeah, so it is putting the plans together. And so what and what I loved what you said about TikTok and just social media in general, what came to mind as you were talking is that you know, it some over the long haul, you did get business from that, but and it's also the the level you show up and how you show up. I when I refer you, I also say check her out here. So it is a way to vet you. So, like me or anyone, or if you're showing up on social media, think about that because that's the first place people go now. Absolutely and just see if you're legit or not. And you are obviously a thousand percent legit after someone you know were were to look at you if they're referred to you, it's a no-brainer because of a thousand.

SPEAKER_00: 7:55

I appreciate that. Yeah, yeah. And I will say that, you know, I even did have um in looking at my business plan, I did have some things that didn't work at all last year. So I tried to start like a networking group down in Arizona, you know, for myself and like just different business owners around and the west side because that's really where all the new families are moving into. And so I thought, oh, what a great opportunity to start this Facebook page, and then I could start this networking group and we can meet once a month and blah, blah, blah. Did not work at all. I barely got any traction with it. So I'm dumping it, you know, it's fine. It didn't work. I'll use other networking opportunities.

SPEAKER_01: 8:26

Yeah, and now that space that's open with just you have to think about it, plan about it, drive there, do it. I mean, now what can you do with that time? So that's an amazing gift that you give yourself for sure.

SPEAKER_00: 8:37

If it's not absolutely figure it out, that's yeah, permission to say goodbye.

SPEAKER_01: 8:43

And this brought up something else that I've been noticing as well. And I know it was controversial back in in COVID with agents. And if you have a license, you know, you're held to a different standard. And so with social media, we were, you know, not to be posting, or you could get find different things that were controversial or could be viewed as misinformation. So not even knowing where that's at, but I just I've been watching online a little bit. I've actually stayed off quite a bit, which I I know part of my plan. I I I need to get back on there and do the things, but just beware that as you're posting, and this does not apply to you, Nikki, because you're phenomenal online. You may be attracting and repelling people. So I just really try to stay neutral. Like if you were to go on my Facebook page, I don't think you'd be able to tell, you know, my stance politically, you know, where I where where I go or what I do. And just there's such a pendulum of swinging, like you're either here or you're there, and it's just a lot. So as you're putting your business plan together, and if social media is one of those, if you want to be loud and proud about anything in your life, do it. Uh, but have a personal account potentially or or separate the two if you are very outspoken, whether it be political or you have something, you know, like even my husband we went hunting this weekend, and he's like, Here, if you want to post this picture. And I was just like, the last time I did, I got some kickback because not everyone wants to see a dead deer exactly across our Facebook page. So it doesn't have to be political, it can be, you know, just thinking about things like that. So just just as a business owner and as you know an agent, especially if you're licensed uh here in Minnesota, you're held to a different ethical degree. So just something that I'm accidentally mentioned.

SPEAKER_00: 10:45

Absolutely. And make sure that if you are doing content based on real estate or in my case, mortgage, that the information that you give is factual, or if it is opinion-based, make sure you state that it's opinion. You know, in my opinion, this is only my opinion, you know, those types of things. Or try to give pros and cons both sides. Like, for example, the 50-year mortgage. If I'm doing a TikTok on a 50-year mortgage, I'm gonna give the pros and the cons. And I'm just gonna say, here's what it is. I'm not gonna give my personal opinion.

SPEAKER_01: 11:10

Yeah, love it. Good. Yeah, perfect. And I I did make a note that I just wanted to go back to, you know, what we're looking at for 2026 and the rates potentially going down a little bit more. Is there any type of a timeline or any time of the year where you see these? I know that usually I remember something around March or what did you?

SPEAKER_00: 11:31

Yeah, they tend to because of the way that the Fed meetings go, they those interest rates will tend to lower around May and June because of the summer months, because of the way that the real estate market rolls through uh throughout most of the country. Obviously, Arizona's completely different. Arizona's hot right now, not so much in the summer. Well, hot real estate it's hot in the summer. So, you know, things slow down in the same way that in Minnesota, the winter are the slow months, but really nationwide, the business will start to pick up in that spring market, and then we'll we'll tend to see lowering of interest rates during that time. Perfect.

SPEAKER_01: 12:02

Good. All right, well, as usual, appreciate you and your time. It is December 1st, so really think about where you guys are going. Nikki's here to help in any way. Of course, I am with your business plan or any questions. Nikki, shout out where to find you.

SPEAKER_00: 12:19

Yes, you can find me on TikTok, Instagram, at mortgages at MN from A from sorry, at mortgages from Mn to A Z. Or you can find me on Facebook at Nikki Erickson or at N Dirk Kavnik Mortgage.

SPEAKER_01: 12:32

Yeah. And if there's any topics you want us to cover on the Monday Market update, wherever you're at listening to this, whether it be YouTube, on the podcast, or on social media, comment. And if there is a subscribe or a like or a follow button, do that for us. And we'll see you next week. All right, bye, everyone. Bye.