Refinance Signals, Fed Timing, And Smart Client Touchpoints

Rates settle in the mid to high fives as bonds respond to global headlines, and we walk through what that means for refinancing, affordability, and buyer momentum. We share a simple January playbook for agents: smart outreach, clean CRMs, CMAs, and thoughtful client touches.

Stay tuned, check in on these Monday market updates. If you can’t get here live, it will be posted on my YouTube channel, on Facebook, and on LinkedIn - so that you have four different places you can go to find it.

Chapters

• 1:12 Welcome And Market Focus
• 1:33 Rates Dip Into Mid To High Fives
• 1:54 Geopolitics, Bonds, And Rate Movement
• 2:24 Should Clients Refinance Now
• 3:13 Affordability Outlook And Redfin Call
• 4:02 Fed Timeline And Rate Path
• 4:49 Agent Playbook: Outreach And CRM
• 6:35 CMAs, LTV, And Refi Support
• 6:55 Tax Docs Touchpoint And Socials
• 8:01 Where To Follow And Closing

Transcript

SPEAKER_01: 0:37

Welcome to the first Monday of 2026. It is June 5th. What do you got for us, Nikki?

SPEAKER_00: 0:44

Yes, well, good morning, everyone. Happy to be here for another year of these awesome videos and making sure we can update everyone on the market and what's happening with interest rates. Then also just some helpful advice on business, et cetera. So we saw uh mortgage interest rates last week go into the high fives, mid to high fives, depending on your situation and how much money down, et cetera, like that. At the end of the week last week, interest rates rose just a tiny bit, but then settled right back down over the news from Venezuela and what happened with there over in Venezuela. So normally when something like this happens and we have a conflict, what'll happen is the bond market will respond by lowering, which in fact lowers interest mortgage interest rates. So we saw a little bit of that happen, although the long-term effects of that are yet to be seen, depending on if it's going to be an ongoing conflict or what's going to happen from the Venezuelan standpoint. But regardless of that, interest rates are holding into that mid to high five range into the low six, depending on your situation, which is good news for all those involved. Also, I just wanted to talk a little bit about I've been seeing receiving a lot, a lot, a lot of inquiries about possibly refinancing mortgages. Because interest rates are going into that high five range. I get I'm getting a lot of people asking the question: is it the right time to refinance? And I know that as realtors, you really don't have a lot to do with refinancing from a client perspective. But if you do have clients that closed in 23 or 24 and even into 25, it would be a good idea to reach back out to them, talk to them about, you know, have they talked to their lender about refinancing, et cetera, to do that customer service and give them a good opportunity to at least check into things to make sure that if they're in that mid to high seven range, um, it might be a good idea for them to consider refinancing right now as we kind of wait for things to come to come to be in 2026 from an interest rate standpoint. Interestingly enough, Redfin actually came out with an article talking about for the first time since 2008, they stated that income for families is going to increase enough in 2026 and 2027 to make home buying quote what they call more affordable. So it's a really interesting take on an article for them to state that at the end of 2026, into 2027, they're already predicting this to happen, um, considering it has not happened in a really long time. So it'll be interesting to see if that comes about. Historically speaking, when Redfin puts out an article, they're about half right when things happen. So it's just it was a really interesting thing to for them to state already in January of 2026, what they think is going to happen from a housing market standpoint into 2027. So just some things to keep an eye on. Like we said, we've been seeing some signals of home sales increasing in November and December that we expect that trend to continue. As a reminder, Powell, the Fed chair, is done at the end of April. So we will have a new Fed chair in May. Prior to that, they are predicting any rate decreases, but it could happen in February or March. So nothing for January is what they're saying. So just some things to keep in mind as we move into the new year. Um, we should be able to see a continuing lowering of mortgage interest rates overall and actually have some interest rates into the mid-five solidly, I would say by the time that May or June rolls around. Got it.

SPEAKER_01: 4:05

No, all good information. And I think that we've talked about that on refinancing and reaching out to your clients on this call a few times. And again, with going into 2026, if you didn't as an agent reach out to everyone in your sphere, your past clients, prospects, people that know you, like you, trust you, and wish them a happy holidays, or even just, you know, if it's a past client check-in on how the house is or anything like that. This is the month to do it. And really, while you're doing that, I'm actually going through a bowl trail boot camp myself, just to make sure I'm on top of everything I need to know for my CRM. So at the same time going through that or reaching out to your clients, make sure you have everything updated and the information, their name, email, cell phone number, and physical address are the four pieces of information you want at the very least, especially if you're doing any type of mailings to physical addresses. But checking in on them and even just asking them because you don't know. Maybe I had a lot of clients because Nikki, you know, she does a great job keeping in contact with people. So they might have already refinanced, but if they haven't, check in with them. And, you know, if you they need a second opinion, if Nikki isn't their lender, reach out to Nikki and find out what that conversation can look like and what conversations she's having with these people, maybe key words or things to be saying. Um, but at the very least, just be human and call them up and check in and see how they're doing, especially if they've closed in the last few years. Um very important. And it's just either way, you should be contacting them. But and if you're looking for something to contact them about, this is a perfect thing.

SPEAKER_00: 5:59

It is. And also offering them a CMA to go along with any questions that they do have about refinancing. Where is their value since 2023 or 2024, or even before that? If you can run them a quick CMA, that'll be super helpful from a refinance perspective as well, because it'll give them an idea of what that value is so we can so that the lender can calculate loan to value pretty quickly. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 6:20

And I know what I've done in the past throughout the year when I was in high production is at every closing, when you get the closing paperwork, uh, the Ulta, I would make a copy and fold it up, write it on the envelope and set it aside. And so now that it's January 1st, you can mail all those out to your clients because they're going to need them for tax purposes. So that's another good thing. If you've just closed on something in 2025, reach out to them or just send it to them and just say, Hey, I know that you're gonna need these for taxes coming up. Just wanted to make it sure it was on top of your pile or something like that. So there's a little another little hacker trick to uh get in front of the people that you've uh closed this last year.

SPEAKER_00: 7:03

Absolutely. And it's also a good time, like when you're doing all this stuff, is to check in and make sure that you friended them on Facebook and on Instagram and make sure that they have access to your socials as well.

SPEAKER_01: 7:12

Perfect. Speaking of socials, I always want you to shout out where do they find you? Because you have such great content that you post throughout the week and really good things that every agent should be tapped into.

SPEAKER_00: 7:24

Yep. So you can find me at mortgage from M N to A Z. That's on Instagram and TikTok, and then also on Facebook under my name Nikki Erickson or under Kevnik Mortgage.

SPEAKER_01: 7:35

Perfect. All right. Well, I would definitely stay tuned, check in on these Monday market updates. Holly, thank you for being here today. And if you can't get here live, it will be posted on my YouTube channel, on Facebook, on LinkedIn, and a podcast so that you have four different places you can go to find it. But it is stuff that you'll want to put it on your calendar to get here. And if you can't get here, make sure you watch the recording because there are things that we need to stay on top of. And again, Nikki has this content and content throughout the week that she's given us permission to use, rinse, repeat, duet, stitch, rip off, repeat again, all of it. It's just such a great thing to stay top of mind, educate, show up as the person of authority as an agent, and I promise you, business will come.

SPEAKER_00: 8:27

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01: 8:29

All right, we'll see you next Monday. Thanks, Nikki.

SPEAKER_00: 8:31

Bye, everyone.